119th Congress: China Priorities of the New Senate Leadership

Key Takeaways

  • New leaders and members of the finance and banking committees could produce a discernible shift in China policy.
  • Apart from differences with their Democratic predecessors, it is unclear exactly where Republican committee chairs will land on issues such as tariffs, outbound investment, and Taiwan.
  • Republican control of both chambers of Congress increases the chances of China bills becoming law, though most will still need bipartisan support to pass the Senate.

Republican control of the Senate, which will last until at least 2026, means that the legislative agenda on China will be guided by new committee chairs who have the power to shift the policies of their Democratic predecessors. While some policies may only be recalibrated, others are likely to do a full pivot. Fresh committee members could also play a role in amplifying positions on tariffs and export controls that were muted last Congress.

 

Senate Committee on Finance

Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Development

Senate Committee on Foreign Relations

Senate Committee on Armed Services

Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

 

See last week’s companion article on House committee leadership here.


Committee on Finance

Chair: Mike Crapo (R-ID); formerly Ron Wyden (D-OR)

Ranking Member: Ron Wyden (D-OR); formerly Mike Crapo (R-ID)

With jurisdiction over trade in the Senate, the finance committee’s response to President Donald Trump’s potential tariff increases will be noteworthy. Crapo has already started to frame the tariffs as advantageous for the economy, if used appropriately.

Wyden, on the other hand, has criticized Trump’s potential tariffs as a tax on American families.

This divide between Crapo and Wyden was present when Trump raised tariffs on China during his first term, but it did not stop the committee leaders from working together. For example, they attempted to pass a bill in 2021 that would create an exclusions process for certain tariffed Chinese products. It is unclear if such collaboration will continue into this Congress.

Introducing legislation to revoke China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status or create a new tariff column for Chinese goods also falls within the committee’s jurisdiction. Most calls for such legislation have come from outside the committee, but new committee member Senator Bernie Sanders (I-VT), who opposed granting PNTR status to China over 20 years ago, could raise the issue. He and fellow committee member Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) may argue against certain free trade provisions throughout the year.

 

Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Development

Chair: Tim Scott (R-SC); formerly Sherrod Brown (D-OH)

Ranking Member: Elizabeth Warren (D-MA); formerly Tim Scott (R-SC)

The banking committee, which has jurisdiction over export controls, could see a noticeable shift on China-related policy. Scott is much more receptive to industry concerns than his predecessor, and even more aligned with industry than many senators in his own party.

Scott has advocated for the “tailored” and “targeted” use of existing sanctions authorities rather than creating new export regulations and outbound investment review mechanisms. His newfound leadership could make him more vocal on recent legislative developments related to outbound investment. Specifically, Scott’s more pro-business attitude may lead him to oppose the codification of a sectoral approach to outbound investment review and the expansion of former President Joe Biden’s executive order.

A new committee leader, Warren is wary of multinational firms and will likely push back on anything she sees as too lenient on US businesses in China. It is unclear if her opposition will significantly affect the committee’s agenda.

 

Committee on Foreign Relations

Chair: Jim Risch (R-ID); formerly Ben Cardin (D-MD)

Ranking Member: Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH); formerly Jim Risch (R-ID)

Risch’s China agenda will revolve around the STRATEGIC Act, a large legislative package he proposed last year that, among other things, seeks to counter Chinese economic coercion, align the United States more closely with Taiwan, and strengthen disclosure requirements for nonprofits and other organizations with connections to China.

While the Republican-backed bill failed to generate enough bipartisan support to advance to the Senate floor last year, it could move forward with the endorsement of just a few Democrats this time around.

Whether China will command the committee’s full attention this Congress remains to be seen. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza took up a large chunk of the committee’s focus last Congress, and this could continue if the conflicts remain unsettled or if new ones arise.

 

Committee on Armed Services

Chair: Roger Wicker (R-MS); formerly Jack Reed (D-RI)

Ranking Member: Jack Reed (D-RI); formerly Roger Wicker (R-MS)

A role reversal in leadership should not significantly shift the Armed Services Committee’s China priorities. Wicker supports boosting defense funding to bolster his “21st Century Peace Through Strength” agenda, and Reed has made funding Indo-Pacific defense initiatives a similar priority.

Wicker and Reed will continue to push for provisions in the annual National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which falls under their jurisdiction, to be as defense-focused as possible. The NDAA funds the military, but it has also become a leading vehicle for China-related bills—including some commercial-oriented bills—to become law.

Measures to enhance US military support for Taiwan are often included in the bill. It remains unclear how Wicker will approach some of the more hotly debated provisions on Taiwan introduced each year that would substantially shift US policy.

 

Committee on Commerce, Science, and Transportation

Chair: Ted Cruz (R-TX); formerly Maria Cantwell (D-WA)

Ranking: Maria Cantwell (D-WA); formerly Ted Cruz (R-TX)

One of Cruz’s first moves as chair was to criticize the Biden administration’s recent rule to impose country-specific export restrictions on AI-related semiconductors. His opposition stands in contrast to many in his party who view the rule as a necessary step to prevent China from accessing US chips. This indicates that despite his history of hardline positions on China, Cruz may push back against perceived government overreach or overburdensome regulations.

Cruz will likely continue the committee’s past work of delinking US tech infrastructure from Chinese entities deemed a national security risk.

Cantwell has backed Cruz’s criticism of the Biden administration’s recent AI rule, but she will likely break with Cruz on other issues, particularly when it comes to Trump’s policies.

 

The Senate state of play

Compared to the House, the Senate is far more deliberate when it comes to legislation, partly because it usually takes 60 votes, as opposed to a simple majority, to pass a bill. This is due to a procedural move the minority party can use called the filibuster. With Republicans controlling only 53 seats, passing any China-related legislation will require bipartisan support.

This means that while unified Republican control of Congress boosts the odds of a bill becoming law, consensus is still necessary.

Such consensus is increasingly hard to find in Washington. Although legislating on China is a bipartisan priority, partisan disagreements are inevitable. Some Senate Democrats fundamentally disagree with Republican views on China, and many will likely be hesitant to support bills that hand Trump and Republicans a legislative win.

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