Forecast 2026
USCBC 2025 Member Survey: US-China Relations and Tariffs Are Primary Challenges for US Companies, but Staying in Market Is Essential to Remaining Globally Competitive
WASHINGTON — July 16, 2025 — The US-China Business Council (USCBC), a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit organization of around 270 American companies that do business in China, today released the results of its annual Member Survey, with frayed US-China relations, mutually destructive tariffs, and lost market share among the leading concerns.
“Unsurprisingly, our 2025 survey results show that strained US-China relations and tariffs are the biggest concerns for American companies in China. Chinese policies that favor domestic companies are also eroding confidence and suppressing companies’ willingness to invest,” USCBC President Sean Stein said. “Despite this, the ability to operate in China’s fiercely competitive market remains non-negotiable for American companies, allowing them to access a burgeoning middle class while honing new technologies and practices essential for maintaining global competitiveness. What companies need immediately from ongoing trade talks, however, is an end to indiscriminate tariffs and the implementation of sensible policies that enable American companies to compete in China on a level playing field — and, of course, predictability.”
Survey highlights:
- Companies again identified US-China relations as the greatest business challenge, and tariffs jumped from eighth to second place amid renewed trade friction.
- Around 40% of companies report negative effects from US export control policies, with many experiencing lost sales, severed customer relationships, and reputational damage in China due to the intensifying perception that US firms are unreliable suppliers.
- 32% of companies reported losing market share in China over the last three years, while nearly 70% are concerned about losing market share in the next five years, reflecting concerns about China’s industrial policies shutting American firms out of the market.
- While 82% of companies reported profits in 2024, fewer than half are optimistic about the future, reflecting concerns over tariffs, deflation, and policy uncertainty. Fewer than half plan to allocate new investments to China this year, down sharply from last year.
- Overcapacity is spilling into new sectors, including health care and consumer goods. Insufficient domestic demand and overcapacity remain the top constraints on profitability.
- Over 80% of respondents say they invest in China to serve the domestic market, while nearly all report that they cannot remain globally competitive without their China operations.
The annual USCBC Member Survey seeks to measure business sentiment and benchmark challenges and opportunities in the China market. Our survey is unique among trade associations, as it incorporates responses from US company representatives in both China and the United States. Most respondents represent large, US-headquartered multinational companies that have operated in China for decades. About 40% represent companies that generated at least $1 billion in revenue in China last year.
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Editor’s note on methodology: This year’s survey was conducted between March and May of 2025 and draws from a pool of 130 member companies. Respondents have significant experience and presence in the China market — three quarters have operated in China for more than 20 years.
Respondents’ top 10 challenges were ranked using a weighted system to reflect the most significant issues they encounter while doing business in China. To ensure consistent analysis over time, the same methodology was used in previous years. Due to rounding, some stacked bar and donut chart totals may add up to slightly more or less than 100%.
美中贸易全国委员会发布2025年《中国商业环境调查》报告：中美关系及关税影响成为美国企业面临的主要挑战，但中国市场仍是企业维持全球竞争力的关键所在
华盛顿，2025年7月16日—美中贸易全国委员会（USCBC）是一家非政府、无党派、非营利的机构，拥有约270家在华经营的美国会员企业。委员会最新发布的2025年度《中国商业环境调查》报告显示，美国企业在华运营面临的主要挑战包括紧张的中美关系、破坏性的双边关税措施及企业市场份额的下滑。
“我们2025年的调查结果与预期相一致，紧张的中美关系和关税政策是在华美国企业最为关切的问题。同时，更倾向于扶持中国本土企业的政策也在进一步削弱美国企业的信心，抑制其在华投资的意愿。” 美中贸易全国委员会会长谭森（Sean Stein）表示， “尽管如此，对美国企业而言，保持在竞争激烈的中国市场中的运营能力依然至关重要。这不仅使他们能够受益于中国日渐壮大的中产阶级消费群体，也为企业试炼保持全球竞争力所需的新技术和新做法提供了实践场景。在当前的贸易磋商中，美国在华企业迫切需要的是终止‘一刀切’式的关税措施，并实施更加合理的政策，使美国企业在中国更公平、更有预期的营商环境中竞争。”
调查结果显示：
- 中美关系继续在美国在华企业面临的商业挑战中位列榜首，而在近期两国贸易摩擦再起的背景下，关税问题也从去年的第八位跃升至第二位。
- 约40%的受访企业表示已经受到美国出口管制政策的负面影响。在中国，由于美国企业愈发被认为是不可靠供应商，许多企业已承受了销售额损失、客户关系紧张及商誉受损等问题。
- 约32%的受访企业表示其过去三年在中国的市场份额有所下滑，并有70%的企业担心将在未来五年内损失市场份额，这体现了美国企业对于中国产业政策会将其挤出市场的担忧。
- 尽管82%的受访企业表示其中国业务在2024年实现盈利，但只有不到一半的企业对未来持乐观态度。这反映出企业对关税、通货紧缩及政策不确定性等问题的担忧。2025年计划在华新增投资的受访企业不足半数，较去年大幅下滑。
- 产能过剩问题正在向医疗健康、消费品等更广泛的领域扩散。内需不足和产能过剩仍是制约企业盈利能力的主要因素。
- 80%以上的受访企业表示，其在华投资是为了服务中国本土市场。同时几乎所有企业都认为，其在华业务对于维系自身在全球范围内的竞争力不可或缺。
美中贸易全国委员会一年一度的商业环境调查旨在评估美国在华企业的商业情绪，并以企业反馈为基准，分析中国市场的挑战与机遇。由于收集并综合了来自中美两地的美国企业代表们的反馈，本调查在一众行业协会的报告中，具有其独特价值。大部分受访企业为在中国运营多年的美国大型跨国企业，其中近40%的受访企业去年在华营收超过10亿美元。
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关于调查方法的编者注: 本年度的调查于2025年3月至5月间开展，调查对象为130家会员企业。受访企业在中国市场业务经验丰富——其中四分之三的企业在华运营超过20年。
本调查将受访企业所面临的十大挑战采用加权排名，以反映各企业在华经营中遇到的最为显著的问题。该方法与往年调查采用的方法相同，以确保分析的一致性。由于对某些数据采用了四舍五入的计算方法，部分图表的百分比总和可能略高于或低于100%。
