China has refunded part or all of the value-added tax (VAT) on exports since 1994. But in recent years, exporters in China often have not received their VAT refund promptly. Though the PRC government does not intentionally delay export VAT refunds, government refund budget shortfalls are causing late payments. According to the Ministry of Commerce, the amount of overdue VAT refunds hit ¥160 billion ($20 billion) at the end of 2002. As a result, many analysts have predicted major changes to the export VAT refund policy to reduce the refund rates to a level that the central government can afford.