China’s Quarterly Growth Beats Expectations as Economy Braces for Tariff Shock

Key Takeaways

• China’s economy grew 5.4% in the first quarter of the year, largely driven by industrial output as exporters frontloaded shipments ahead of US tariffs.
• Some estimates suggest US punitive tariffs on Chinese goods—currently standing at 145%—could slow down China’s GDP growth by over two percentage points in 2025.
• Efforts are underway to help exporters pivot to the domestic market, but it is uncertain whether there will be sufficient demand to absorb the redirected supply.