A decadelong boom in China's rice production is likely to come to an end this year, according to a government forecast, as farmers reach production limits and Beijing shows signs of warming to cheaper imports.
The China National Grain and Oils Information Center, a state grain-policy think tank, projected rice output may dip 0.7% to 202.8 million metric tons—the first time since 2003 that China would harvest less than the year before.
China, the world's largest consumer of rice, is also the world's largest producer, accounting for a quarter of global output. But analysts say Chinese production has come under pressure as more land is claimed for industrial purposes and people continue to leave the countryside for cities.