Joseph Rafshoon

Talks between US and Chinese negotiators in Geneva over the weekend were more constructive than anticipated. In a joint statement, the two sides drastically reduced baseline tariffs on the other for 90 days to facilitate further negotiations. The reprieve will bring some relief to US companies and consumers, but tariff rates remain high and negotiators face several obstacles to a durable settlement.

The Trump administration’s approach to trade with China is a tangled web of existing and potential future trade actions. While there has not been a coordinated effort to clarify exactly how the administration will roll out new actions, the threat still looms.

Republican control of the Senate, which will last until at least 2026, means that the legislative agenda on China will be guided by new committee chairs who have the power to shift the policies of their Democratic predecessors. While some policies may only be recalibrated, others are likely to do a full pivot.

With Republicans maintaining control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, which runs from now through December 2026, many of the same China policy priorities from last year are expected to stay front and center. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to task standing committee chairs with keeping the pressure on China-related proposals, though these will have to be balanced with other Republican priorities like immigration policy and tax cuts.

President-elect Donald Trump and many other Republicans have made clear their intention to revoke China’s permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) status with the United States, a power that resides with Congress. Some, however, see the need for even higher tariffs than what would result from a so-called clean PNTR repeal, which has led to growing calls for the United States to both revoke China’s status and create a new tariff column entirely—column 3—designed specifically for imports from China.