China Market Intelligence

With the Iowa caucuses less than three months away, the Republican presidential primary race is intensifying, and that includes their respective stances on China. The candidates all share a “tough on China” approach, but their views range from a more hardline policy that would reshape the US-China relationship to the traditional conservative approach that would not completely rupture the relationship.

Congress is currently debating the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2024. In recent years, the NDAA has been a key vehicle for passing China-related legislation, and this year’s bill will be no different.

On July 21, the National Health Commission (NHC), along with nine other ministries, launched an unprecedented year-long campaign targeting corruption that is long-entrenched in its healthcare sector.

Last month, the 14th National People’s Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC), China’s top legislative body, released its five-year legislative plan for 2023 to 2028. The plan outlines a total of 130 legislative projects—the highest total since the NPCSC released its first five-year legislative plan in 1993, which had a total of 152 items.

Amid a slowdown in economic growth and reduced domestic consumption, China’s State Council released a 24-point guideline that emphasizes the importance of attracting and utilizing foreign investment to establish what is described as a “new open economic system.” The document, published last month, is essentially a guidebook for other Chinese policymaking bodies which are expected to implement the opinions.

US lawmakers recently returned to Washington after more than a month of working in their home districts and are gearing up for an eventful fall. Multiple must-pass pieces of legislation are looming on the horizon, and lawmakers will try to use these vehicles to legislate on China-related topics.

Traveling between the United States and China has become more common and convenient over the past eight months as both countries eliminated COVID-19 restrictions, relaxed visa policies, and allowed for more flights between the two countries.

US-China bilateral trade in goods saw a sharp contraction during the first half of 2023 after reaching a record high the year prior. The contraction in bilateral trade occurred amid a broader, albeit more modest, contraction in US-worldwide trade in goods, stemming from global and domestic economic woes that have led the WTO, IMF, and World Bank to forecast slower growth for global trade in 2023.

In 2020, the Chinese government sought to rein in real estate developers’ high debt levels with the introduction of the “three red lines,” which imposed borrowing limits on real estate firms. While the move was meant to stabilize the industry, developers and local governments alike have been under financial pressure as developers face declining property sales and local governments see decreasing revenue from land sales.