Research & Analysis

Two major US semiconductor suppliers on Tuesday announced that US officials had given them permission to resume exporting advanced H20 and MI308 chips to China, reversing a ban imposed in April. In an interview on Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the decision was part of trade talks in Geneva and London.

US-China relations and tariffs are the top concerns of US companies doing business in China. US-China relations continue to top the list of business challenges, and tariffs jumped from eighth to second place amid renewed trade frictions. Companies’ first priority for the bilateral negotiations that kicked off in May is tariff reduction.

President Donald Trump announced on Tuesday that the United States would impose 50% tariffs on copper and tariffs on pharmaceuticals, potentially at a rate of 200%. While Trump clarified on Wednesday that the copper tariffs begin August 1, the timeline for the tariffs on pharmaceuticals is less clear.

The United States and China have signed a yet-to-be-released framework capturing agreements made between chief negotiators in London last month. Trump on June 11 posted on Truth Social that the China trade deal was complete and that full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied up front by China.

China unveiled new financial opening measures during the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai last month, timing several additional policy announcements to coincide with the event. Each summer, the forum convenes top regulators from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the National Financial Regulation Administration (NFRA) to signal policy directions and preview reform priorities for the financial sector.

A subset of lawmakers have long argued that listing on US exchanges allows Chinese firms to benefit from American capital while supporting China’s military modernization efforts. In his first term, President Donald Trump launched an effort to prohibit US investments in Chinese companies deemed to be connected to China’s military, resulting in the delisting of several major Chinese state-owned enterprises.

Six Chinese government agencies issued a joint statement on Monday adding two precursor chemicals (4-piperidone and 1-tert-butoxycarbonyl-4-piperidone) to a list of Class Two chemicals that will be subject to tougher supervision starting July 20.

By offering an avenue for Beijing to reorient its exports and for Washington to strengthen existing China trade restrictions, third countries are becoming a key front in bilateral trade conflict.

All eyes are on the Senate to pass the reconciliation tax and spending package after the House passed its version by a vote of 215–214. The so-called big, beautiful bill is aimed at making 2017 tax cuts permanent and includes provisions related to energy, health care, and other economic issues. It is a budget reconciliation bill which is designed to fast-track policy and avoid higher vote thresholds for passage. Several provisions have important US-China trade implications.