China Market Intelligence

The United States and China have signed a yet-to-be-released framework capturing agreements made between chief negotiators in London last month. Trump on June 11 posted on Truth Social that the China trade deal was complete and that full magnets, and any necessary rare earths, will be supplied up front by China.

China unveiled new financial opening measures during the Lujiazui Forum in Shanghai last month, timing several additional policy announcements to coincide with the event. Each summer, the forum convenes top regulators from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the National Financial Regulation Administration (NFRA) to signal policy directions and preview reform priorities for the financial sector.

A subset of lawmakers have long argued that listing on US exchanges allows Chinese firms to benefit from American capital while supporting China’s military modernization efforts. In his first term, President Donald Trump launched an effort to prohibit US investments in Chinese companies deemed to be connected to China’s military, resulting in the delisting of several major Chinese state-owned enterprises.

By offering an avenue for Beijing to reorient its exports and for Washington to strengthen existing China trade restrictions, third countries are becoming a key front in bilateral trade conflict.

All eyes are on the Senate to pass the reconciliation tax and spending package after the House passed its version by a vote of 215–214. The so-called big, beautiful bill is aimed at making 2017 tax cuts permanent and includes provisions related to energy, health care, and other economic issues. It is a budget reconciliation bill which is designed to fast-track policy and avoid higher vote thresholds for passage. Several provisions have important US-China trade implications.

Multinational companies have struggled to acquire rare earth magnets from China since the announcement, with several USCBC members expressing concern about manufacturing disruptions caused by delays in export approval for rare earth material from China.

Under this system, duties are incurred only when goods enter China’s domestic market. However, to close tax loopholes and monitor specific “sensitive” goods, the new rules impose stricter requirements on the  storage, processing, and domestic sales of sensitive imports, while also narrowing the scope of goods impacted.

On May 14, China’s National People’s Congress and State Council released their legislative plans for 2025, offering a window into economic and social priorities. Included are a landmark law to guide macroeconomic development planning, stricter regulation of financial markets, and legal tools to respond to foreign sanctions.

At a press conference this month, the People’s Bank of China announced a new round of supportive economic measures aimed at enhancing liquidity, reducing borrowing costs, and supporting targeted sectors. These measures follow promises of further stimulus first announced in late 2024 and reiterated throughout Q1 2025.

Beijing is recalibrating its domestic consumption strategy in 2025. Using the services sector as a testing ground, recent policy efforts aim to boost both actual and perceived wealth among Chinese households, thereby fostering a “wealth effect” that encourages consumption. Through livelihood-oriented reforms, premium services campaigns, and selective liberalization to attract foreign investment, the government is attempting to engineer consumer sentiment by making spending feel safe, worthwhile, and emotionally rewarding.