China Market Intelligence

China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is drafting the 15th five-year plan (FYP), which will loosely guide the country’s economic and social development from 2026 to 2030. Early signals from Politburo readouts, ministry-level research, scholars, and veteran FYP planners point to a focus on diversifying trade, deepening capital market access, and curbing industrial overcapacity.

The Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) is readying measures meant to revitalize US commercial shipbuilding, an industry the White House considers important to economic resilience and national security. The actions will include announcing new tariffs on Chinese-made maritime equipment and charging previously announced port fees on Chinese-linked ships.

The US AI Action Plan is a strategic shift from the previous administration’s more restrictive AI Diffusion Rule to promoting the global export and adoption of American AI technology. The plan envisages a future in which the United States leads in developing and deploying AI globally, while restricting access for geopolitical competitors such as China.

Amid rising deflation and falling profits across industries, Beijing is intensifying efforts to rein in “involution-style” competition, or cutthroat price wars that sacrifice product quality and distort market order. At a July 1 Central Financial and Economic Affairs Commission meeting, President Xi Jinping emphasized the need to curb disorderly price competition, improve product quality, and phase out outdated production capacity.

Beijing is contemplating how to secure a foothold in the international monetary system as Washington pushes ahead with dollar-linked stablecoins to solidify the greenback’s dominance. Today’s total stablecoin market capitalization is roughly $265 billion, with US dollar-denominated stablecoins accounting for about 99% of the global market.

Companies remain anxious over outstanding export approvals of dual-use items critical to their operations, even while approvals of items like rare earth magnets are picking up. At a recent closed-door meeting, USCBC learned that China’s Ministry of Commerce is exploring new procedures to ease delays.

In the first half of 2025, China achieved GDP growth of 5.2% year-over-year, slightly surpassing expectations. Growth was driven primarily by exports amid a prolonged housing slump, declining industrial demand, and subdued consumer confidence.