Research & Analysis

USCBC commissioned Oxford Economics to build upon our previous study and estimate the economic impact of an escalation of existing tariff measures in the form of revoking China’s PNTR status, a scenario that has been put forward by some in Congress and by three of the leading Republican presidential candidates.

In May, USCBC published an article about the troubling number of proposals being discussed in Congress and on the campaign trail calling to revoke China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. This is a position held by the three frontrunners for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

After years of conflicting reports on the health of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a recent summit in Beijing indicated that the project is moving in a new direction. On October 17 and 18, China hosted the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation to set the agenda for the next decade.

From October 30 to 31, China convened the twice-a-decade Central Financial Work Conference, an agenda-setting moment for the financial sector. This year’s event took place amid ongoing local government and property sector debt challenges.

On Tuesday, the White House confirmed that it has reached an agreement “in principle” for President Joe Biden and President Xi Jinping to meet on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders Meeting in San Francisco taking place November 11 to 17. The agreement was announced after Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi met with Biden, National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, and a delegation of US business leaders in Washington last week.

USCBC will be filing comments with the Bureau of Industry and Security on the two new interim final rules on advanced computers/supercomputers (AC/S IFR) (PDF) and semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME IFR) (PDF). We plan on filing one comment letter to address both rules.

On October 23, 2023, the Commerce Department began accepting full applications on a rolling basis for $39 billion in direct investments in US semiconductor firms, along with $75 billion earmarked for loans and loan guarantees allocated in the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS Act). Commerce previously accepted optional pre-applications.

China’s third quarter economic data exceeded expectations, growing 4.9 percent year-on-year. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, this growth puts China on track to reach its 5 percent annual economic growth target, provided fourth quarter growth reaches at least 4.4 percent.

With the Iowa caucuses less than three months away, the Republican presidential primary race is intensifying, and that includes their respective stances on China. The candidates all share a “tough on China” approach, but their views range from a more hardline policy that would reshape the US-China relationship to the traditional conservative approach that would not completely rupture the relationship.

On October 17, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) released updated rules restricting the export of advanced semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. The new controls will become effective 30 days after they are published on the Federal Register, which is expected in the near future.