China’s 2026 Economic Playbook: Slower Growth, Stronger Self-Reliance

Key Takeaways

• China set a lower GDP target of 4.5%-5%, as policy priorities target sustainable, innovation-driven growth amid low domestic demand and an anti-involution campaign.
• The 15th five-year plan draft outline signals stronger policy support for domestic substitution and China-led global standard-making in strategic industries.
• Beijing’s push for manufacturing digitalization, decarbonization, and expanded care services will likely create opportunities for foreign technology and services, even as competition intensifies.