China Market Intelligence

US-China bilateral trade in goods increased 6.8 percent over the previous quarter during Q3 2023, the first quarterly increase since bilateral trade first dived in Q4 2022. Growth in bilateral trade significantly outpaced that of US-worldwide trade, a result of solid consumer spending in the United States and a seasonal increase in US imports of goods ahead of the holiday shopping season that benefits countries that export consumer goods, including China.

In May, USCBC published an article about the troubling number of proposals being discussed in Congress and on the campaign trail calling to revoke China’s Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status. This is a position held by the three frontrunners for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024.

After years of conflicting reports on the health of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a recent summit in Beijing indicated that the project is moving in a new direction. On October 17 and 18, China hosted the third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation to set the agenda for the next decade.

From October 30 to 31, China convened the twice-a-decade Central Financial Work Conference, an agenda-setting moment for the financial sector. This year’s event took place amid ongoing local government and property sector debt challenges.

On October 23, 2023, the Commerce Department began accepting full applications on a rolling basis for $39 billion in direct investments in US semiconductor firms, along with $75 billion earmarked for loans and loan guarantees allocated in the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022 (CHIPS Act). Commerce previously accepted optional pre-applications.

China’s third quarter economic data exceeded expectations, growing 4.9 percent year-on-year. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, this growth puts China on track to reach its 5 percent annual economic growth target, provided fourth quarter growth reaches at least 4.4 percent.

With the Iowa caucuses less than three months away, the Republican presidential primary race is intensifying, and that includes their respective stances on China. The candidates all share a “tough on China” approach, but their views range from a more hardline policy that would reshape the US-China relationship to the traditional conservative approach that would not completely rupture the relationship.

Congress is currently debating the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for fiscal year 2024. In recent years, the NDAA has been a key vehicle for passing China-related legislation, and this year’s bill will be no different.

On July 21, the National Health Commission (NHC), along with nine other ministries, launched an unprecedented year-long campaign targeting corruption that is long-entrenched in its healthcare sector.