Research & Analysis

President Donald Trump opted not to raise tariffs on China during the first week of his administration. Instead, he on Monday issued a regulatory freeze and directed executive department heads to review all new rules published under the Biden administration that have not taken effect, a move that could halt several rules with operational impacts for USCBC member companies.  The White House also issued a trade policy memorandum later that evening directing federal agencies, primarily the Department of Commerce, Treasury, and the Office of the US Trade Representative, to conduct a top-to-bottom review of US trade policy.

China’s economy experienced a moderate rebound in the final quarter of 2024, providing the needed push for the country to meet its annual growth target of around 5 percent. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s real GDP in 2024 reached RMB 134.9 trillion ($18.42 trillion), marking 5 percent year-on-year growth.

Republican control of the Senate, which will last until at least 2026, means that the legislative agenda on China will be guided by new committee chairs who have the power to shift the policies of their Democratic predecessors. While some policies may only be recalibrated, others are likely to do a full pivot.

The Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security on Wednesday issued the Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion interim final rule, geared towards curbing China’s access to cutting-edge chips used in AI. The new rule imposes country-specific export caps on chips needed to train AI models, proposing a three-tier licensing system that determines the type and quantity of advanced chips a country can procure based on its relationship with the United States.

During its final month in office, the Biden administration has released a slew of measures regulating commercial relations with China, capping off years of work in some areas and jumpstarting new types of rulemaking in others. Recent measures include precedent-setting export controls on the semiconductors needed to power artificial intelligence (AI) models, new blacklistings, and a Section 301 investigation.

Amid an economic downturn and growing pressure to restore foreign investor confidence, China’s Ministry of Finance (MOF) recently published a draft definition of “domestic products” for government procurement. The move aims to establish a nationwide standard. However, its effectiveness in resolving longstanding issues facing the business community in this area remains to be seen.

With Republicans maintaining control of the House of Representatives in the 119th Congress, which runs from now through December 2026, many of the same China policy priorities from last year are expected to stay front and center. Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-LA) is likely to task standing committee chairs with keeping the pressure on China-related proposals, though these will have to be balanced with other Republican priorities like immigration policy and tax cuts.

The Department of Defense (DOD) on Monday added prominent tech entities Tencent and Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), along with dozens of other Chinese companies, to its 1260H list of Chinese military companies. According to a department readout, these entities were added because of their involvement in China’s military-civil fusion strategy.

President-elect Donald Trump led the charge on Wednesday to convince House Republicans to abandon a bipartisan compromise bill to fund the government until March, increasing the chances of a government shutdown beginning today. The continuing resolution (CR), which was released on Tuesday, included multiple China-related provisions, including an outbound investment review proposal.

Chinese tech startups may have found a new lifeline as venture capital investment in the country declines. Driven by waning investor confidence and mounting geopolitical tensions, nearly 40 percent of domestic and foreign venture capital funds have scaled back their China operations in the first nine months of 2024, resulting in a $5 billion investment decrease compared with 2023.