Research & Analysis

Terminating the treaty would have significant financial and operational consequences for most, if not all, American companies operating in China. The treaty contributes to a level playing field for American companies in China. For example, the treaty establishes a mutual agreement procedure, a mechanism through which US companies can request relief from Chinese taxation that is inconsistent with the treaty.

This report explores the latest comprehensive data available on exports of both US goods (2024) and services (2023) to China as well as the American jobs they support. This data does not reflect US and Chinese tariff increases enacted so far in 2025, which are expected to significantly reduce US exports if they remain in place.

After weeks of aggressive posturing toward China, the Trump administration this week took a softer tone and suggested a willingness to negotiate soon. President Donald Trump on Tuesday said that tariffs on China could come down substantially, though he did not indicate when or to what extent.

China’s economy got off to a strong start in 2025, but it is uncertain whether this momentum can be maintained amid an intensifying trade war with the United States. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s first quarter real GDP reached 31.88 trillion yuan ($4.37 trillion), increasing 5.4% year-on-year and surpassing most forecasts.

Over the past month, US-China trade tensions have escalated to unsustainable heights. In response to new US tariffs, China imposed a 125% tariff on all US imports, noting that it will not engage in any further tariff increases as part of a “numbers game.”

China has seen several high-level personnel changes at the central and provincial levels over the last few months. On April 16, Li Chenggang (李成钢) was appointed vice minister and international trade representative of the Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM), succeeding Wang Shouwen (王受文).

The Trump administration took the first step this week to place new duties on products temporarily exempted from US reciprocal tariffs unveiled on April 2. President Donald Trump last weekend announced exemptions for a wide range of electronics, including smartphones and semiconductor manufacturing equipment, offering a reprieve from tariff rates as high as 195%.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday declared a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs for all countries except China, increasing China’s rate to 125%. Added to the 20% tariffs imposed last month to address fentanyl concerns, these new duties bring the overall punitive US tariff rate imposed on Chinese goods this year to 145%.

Following President Donald Trump’s announcement of “reciprocal tariffs” on April 2, China swiftly responded with a broad package of retaliatory tools targeting US trade and investment.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday unveiled his reciprocal tariff plan, which imposes a 10% baseline tariff on most countries and much higher tariffs on certain trading partners, including a 34% rate for China that will go into effect at midnight on April 9.