Research & Analysis

China’s factories are busy but not necessarily profitable. In the first eight months of 2025, industrial value-added rose 6.2% year-on-year, yet profits edged up just 0.9%. The wide gap between output and profitability reveals structural inefficiencies across China’s industrial sector, including persistent deflationary pressure, chronic oversupply, and stagnant productivity masked by volume growth. This misalignment threatens the sustainability of industrial recovery and undermines Beijing’s broader growth targets.

China’s State Council has finalized the Notice on Implementing Policies for Domestic Product Standards in Government Procurement after several rounds of public consultation. The document introduces China’s first-ever nationwide definition of “domestic product” for government procurement purposes. This notice will take effect on January 1, 2026.

China’s stock markets have rebounded in 2025, defying expectations that global trade tensions and weak domestic economic conditions might drag on performance. The Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) Composite Index has risen 19.54% over the six-month period, with the China Securities Index (CSI) 300 gaining 22.41%.

China remains an area of bipartisan interest and consensus on Capitol Hill. Lawmakers in the 118th Congress are expected to build off the momentum of the last congress, which introduced over 700 China-related bills, resolutions and amendments spanning a variety of issue areas, including trade and investment, national security, telecommunications, and human rights.

Bilateral tensions flared over the weekend after China announced new export controls on rare earth elements. The move was a response to the Commerce Department’s “50% rule,” which was released late last month and dramatically expanded the number of Chinese firms on the Entity List.

The Senate on Thursday passed its version of the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for 2026. The new version includes several China provisions that were excluded from the package offered in mid-September. The bill now moves forward to conference with the House, which passed its version earlier in September.

China’s economy has grown faster than expected this year, but growth in tax receipts has fallen behind. In response, Beijing is turning to tax reform as a cornerstone of fiscal stabilization, combining short-term measures to raise revenue from existing sources with longer-term efforts to standardize its tax regime.

For companies, this marks a shift from episodic policy shocks to institutionalized legal pressure, including conflicting compliance burdens, more discretionary enforcement, and increased uncertainty. Beijing, in turn, can use US firms’ regulatory exposure as a strategic lever to influence trade negotiations, shape corporate behavior, and advance longer-term industrial policy goals.

Although BIS frames the measure as an administrative plug to a loophole in semiconductor export controls, in practice, the rule is a broad decoupling action. As a result of the rule, the number of firms facing Entity List restrictions will climb from around 1,200 to an estimated 11,000, sending a chill through the commercial relationship.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security on Tuesday published an interim final rule broadening the reach of its export controls blacklist. Under the new provision, any entity that is at least 50% owned by one or more entities on the list will itself automatically be subject to Entity List restrictions.