Research & Analysis

USCBC interviews Victor Shih, director of the 21st Century China Center at UC San Diego, on the factors behind China’s rising local government debt, where efforts to resolve the debt stand, and considerations for multinational firms.

The Supreme Court last Friday ruled six-to-three against President Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on global trade partners. The Trump administration complied with the decision and on Tuesday began imposing a new 10% global tariff using Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The change provides relief to China, which previously faced an IEEPA rate of 20% (10% reciprocal, 10% fentanyl). The ruling did not address the question of tariff refunds, which is likely to be handled by lower courts.

The Federal Acquisition Regulatory Council (FAR) on Tuesday proposed a new rule that would require federal contractors to certify that their products do not contain certain covered semiconductor products linked to foreign adversaries starting in December 2027.

The Department of Defense’s 1260H list — often referred to as the Chinese Military Companies (CMC) list — is back in the spotlight after an updated version was abruptly removed from the Federal Register just hours after being published late last week. While it’s unclear when a list will be republished and who will be on it, companies should be aware of the list’s growing importance.

President Donald Trump will visit China the first week of April to meet with President Xi Jinping, Politico reported on Monday. With just a month and a half to go, the administration’s specific objectives for the trip remain unclear. Trump said last week that he had spoken with Xi about renewed commitments to purchase US energy and potentially agriculture, offering no additional information.

China has taken a significant step in modernizing and standardizing its tax policy. On January 1, the Value-Added Tax (VAT) Law came into effect after being passed by the National People’s Congress in December 2024. VAT, a consumption tax based on the value added to goods and services at each stage of production and distribution, is China’s largest single source of tax revenue and accounted for 39% of total national revenue in 2025.

Late last year, China’s National People’s Congress passed the most significant revisions to the Foreign Trade Law in two decades. While nothing directly signals more frequent use of these tools against US companies in the short term, China will be equipped to respond decisively if trade negotiations are derailed.

USCBC interviews Sarah Beran — partner at Macro Advisory Partners, former deputy chief of mission at the US Embassy in Beijing, and former senior director for China and Taiwan affairs at the White House National Security Council — on Trump’s anticipated visit to China in April. Topics include the preparatory work required for presidential summits, how to assess their outcomes, and advocacy channels for businesses.

President Donald Trump announced on Wednesday that he had an “excellent” call with Chinese President Xi Jinping and looks forward to visiting China in April. The Treasury Department and the Office of the US Trade Representative are leading trade discussions in preparation for the visit.

According to official government data, China’s economy hit its target of 5% growth in 2025, but only just. Unofficial estimates paint a bleaker picture, with the Rhodium Group concluding that China’s real GDP grew by just 2.5% to 3% in 2025, largely due to persistent deflation and a sharp decline in investment.